chances are "50:50" if you think of it this way. but there is a little more to it.

this was discussed in the diabolotreff.de forum years ago too i think.

the problem is, that you have to exit the trick with the correct diabolo at the correct point.

1 diabolo is the upper diabolo and 1 diaolo is the lower one, wich one is wich changes once per hyperloop rotation. to exit the trick you have to get it out when the correct diabolo (chances are 50:50 that it is the correct one) is the upper one.

but catching the right moment to exit isn't 50:50, because in a hyperloop rotation you can't exit for like 80% of the rotation.

so catching that breif moment to exit AND having the right diabolo on top doesn't quite add up to 50%.